TOWARDS A DIVERSIFIED AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY IN NIGERIA: THE IMPACT OF NON-OIL EXPORTS, HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT, AND INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

This study investigates the long-run impact of non-oil exports, human capital development, and investments on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981-2023. Amid Nigeria’s overdependence on oil revenues and persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, the research aims to identify alternative and sustainable growth drivers. Using robust time-series econometric techniques including unit root tests with structural breaks, Johansen cointegration, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). The study finds that gross fixed capital formation, education expenditure, and financial development significantly and positively affect economic growth. In contrast, non-oil exports, government expenditure on health, and exchange rate volatility have negative long-run effects on GDP per capita. These findings suggest structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s non-oil sectors, institutional weaknesses in health spending, and adverse macroeconomic effects of currency instability. The study provides strong empirical support for policies that promote export diversification, improve education systems, enhance investment in infrastructure, and stabilize the macroeconomic environment. It contributes to the literature by offering a holistic assessment of how a combination of non-oil exports, human capital, and investments drive sustainable economic growth in a resource-rich but structurally challenged economy like Nigeria. The study recommends reforming non-oil export sectors, increasing infrastructure investment, improving education quality, strengthening financial sector development, enhancing health spending efficiency, and stabilizing the exchange rate.