The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in SADC Countries

Agriculture is a key sector for economic growth, food security, and rural livelihoods within the member nations of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, the agricultural systems throughout the SADC regions face serious threats from climate change, which is seen through temperature rises, irregular rainfall patterns, and the rising frequency of droughts. The study examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in four SADC countries: South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. It also assesses the impact of institutional structures, policy initiatives, and technological advancements in enhancing agricultural resilience to climate change. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model was employed to assess short and long run impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The findings reveal that precipitation significantly increases agricultural productivity in the long run, but not in the short run. In addition, governance inefficiencies, which are measured by control of corruption index have negative long run impacts on agricultural productivity. The estimated speed of adjustment (ECT: −0.9557) demonstrated a strong long run equilibrium relationship, indicating that agricultural productivity converges to its long run trend regardless of short run fluctuations. In conclusion, the findings of this study provide essential knowledge to assist policymakers, researchers, and development agencies in the creation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving agricultural resilience to climate change across SADC member countries.