Prediction of tumor origin in cancers of unknown primary origin with cytology-based deep learning

Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) site poses diagnostic challenges due to its elusive nature. Many cases of CUP manifest as pleural and peritoneal serous effusions. Leveraging cytological images from 57,220 cases at four tertiary hospitals, we developed a deep-learning method for tumor origin differentiation using cytological histology (TORCH) that can identify malignancy and predict tumor origin in both hydrothorax and ascites. We examined its performance on three internal (n = 12,799) and two external (n = 14,538) testing sets. In both internal and external testing sets, TORCH achieved area under the receiver operating curve values ranging from 0.953 to 0.991 for cancer diagnosis and 0.953 to 0.979 for tumor origin localization. TORCH accurately predicted primary tumor origins, with a top-1 accuracy of 82.6% and top-3 accuracy of 98.9%. Compared with results derived from pathologists, TORCH showed better prediction efficacy (1.677 versus 1.265, P < 0.001), enhancing junior pathologists’ diagnostic scores significantly (1.326 versus 1.101, P < 0.001). Patients with CUP whose initial treatment protocol was concordant with TORCH-predicted origins had better overall survival than those who were administrated discordant treatment (27 versus 17 months, P = 0.006). Our study underscores the potential of TORCH as a valuable ancillary tool in clinical practice, although further validation in randomized trials is warranted. Developed on cytology images of hydrothorax and ascites from 57,220 cases at four hospitals, a deep-learning model shows high accuracy in tumor origin prediction and presents prognostic value when patient treatment is consistent with the cancer origin predicted by the model.