Predicting Sweet Pepper Yield Based on Fruit Counts at Multiple Ripeness Stages Monitored by an AI-Based System Mounted on a Pipe-Rail Trolley

In our previous study, we developed a monitoring system for automatically counting tomatoes produced in protected horticulture using deep learning–based object detection. In this study, we adapted the system for sweet peppers and developed a monitoring system tailored to this crop. We evaluated its fruit detection and counting performance in a large-scale commercial greenhouse. Furthermore, we investigated the relationship between fruit counts at different ripeness stages and the total yield in the cultivation area, and we assessed the accuracy when predicting the yield for the following week. The results confirmed that the system maintained a stable fruit detection performance throughout the trial, and that its outputs were reliable enough to indicate its potential to replace manual counting. In addition, the average number of fruits at the 1–40% and 41–80% ripeness stages across six planting rows showed a correlation with the total weekly yield in the entire 0.6 ha cultivation area the following week. A yield prediction model using average fruit counts at these two ripeness stages as explanatory variables achieved a WAPE of 21.35%, indicating that the monitoring system is effective for yield prediction.