On the Longitudinal Collision Risk Model Taking into Account the Mach Number Assignments

This paper describes a longitudinal collision risk model and its model parameters taking iI ユ to account Mach number assignments on the basis of empirical data obtained from the flight progress strips an oceanic route ， namely R220 ． The relationship between the distribution of the gain of inter − arrival time separation ， D ， ， and that of the inter − arrival time at the entry fix ， T1 ， is scrutinized and discussed ． Then models describing the distribution of Dt are proposed ． A longi 亡 udina1 collision risk ， N ． x ， is estimated using the proposed models together with the empirical data ． An estirnate of the 95 ％ containment interval of Nax using the BoQtstrap method ， ie 匚 6 ． 0 × 10 − 8 ， 3 ． 4 × 10 一 ア ］ ， is obtained ．