Modelos de simulación y rentabilidad: un estudio sobre la producción de papa comercializada en Medellín

According to the FAO, the potato is the third most important food in the world after rice and wheat. Even though Colombia does not stand out as one of the leading players in the world potato market, its per capita consumption is 57 kilos per year, which positions it as a tuber of great importance for the economy and the food culture of homes. Despite its relative importance in the Colombian economy, the stability of profitability for producers is low due to the volatility of its market price, crop yields, and interest rates. This study analyzes these variables' effect on the profitability of producers who marketed their potatoes in the metropolitan area in 2022. A specific financial model was designed to understand how fluctuations in the market and agricultural conditions affect the profitability of potato producers. This model allows us to analyze the impact of critical variables such as sales prices, crop yields, and interest rates. Collecting historical data and applying a Monte Carlo simulation made it possible to reproduce different scenarios and understand how these variables interact to influence producers' profitability. The simulation results show that sales prices and crop yields are the main determinants of the profitability of potato producers. A decrease in any of these factors can significantly reduce the net margin, putting the economic sustainability of producers at risk. Although interest rates also play a role, their impact is less pronounced. In conclusion, the profitability of potato producers is a fundamental pillar for the sustainable development of rural regions. To guarantee it, public policies that promote crop diversification and financial support for producers must be implemented when market conditions are unfavorable. Likewise, strengthening producer organizations will improve their position in the market, ensuring their stability.