Mapping the cost competitiveness of African green hydrogen imports to Europe

Governments in many European countries have high hopes for cheap green hydrogen (H2) from Africa to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. Using geospatial levelized cost models, this study evaluates the economic feasibility of exporting green H2 in the form of ammonia from Africa to Europe under four realistic financing scenarios by 2030. Our findings suggest that without European policy interventions, green H2 from Africa remains prohibitively expensive with least costs from €4.2 kgH2−1 to €4.9 kgH2−1 depending on the interest rate environment. Using de-risking policy, we identify 214 locations in six African countries that may be competitive in the current interest rate environment, yet many of these face a challenging security situation casting doubt on long-term investments. Under optimal policy and interest rate scenarios, we find a least cost of €3.2 kgH2−1 in Mauritania by 2030. Overall, de-risking and strategic location selection are key to make African green H2 exports competitive on the global stage. A geospatial levelized cost model shows that green hydrogen imports from Africa to Europe remain uncompetitive without major policy support. De-risking policies and strategic site selection are key, but major risks remain.