Impact of demography and emission trading scheme on heat-related mortality in China

Both demography and emission trading scheme impact heat-related mortality (HRM), but the interactive impacts of demography and ETS on HRM are usually neglected in the literature. In this paper, we attempt to narrow the research gap by studying the collective impacts of the demographic factors and the ETS implemented in China during 2025–2060.

To achieve this research target, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate the operation of the Chinese economy system.

The model results indicate that population aging increases the monetary value of heat-related mortality (MVHRM), while population shrinkage decreases MVHRM. These two demographic factors collectively have a positive impact on MVHRM; they will increase MVHRM by over 115% in 2060. Both population aging and shrinkage reduce GDP and emissions, with the former's impact more pronounced than the latter's impact. By curbing anthropogenic emissions, the ETS will reduce MVHRM by around 0.03% in 2060. The ETS incurs a short-term GDP loss but boosts economic growth in the long term, though the magnitude of this ETS's effect will be minimal in 2060. The ETS strengthens the demography-induced GDP loss in the long term, but it weakens the negative impact of the demography on HRM and emissions. These demographic factors collectively enable the ETS to reduce more HRM; however, they lower emission mitigation and increase ETS-induced GDP loss.

Hence, the current demographic shift causes climate policy to be less effective in emission mitigation despite its expansion of HRM reduction by climate policy; adaptation measures for the elderly are more effective in alleviating HRM than emission mitigation.