Fragmenting World Geo-Economic Order: Making Sense of the Escalating United States-China Economic Tension

The unipolar dominance of the US after the Cold War era is fading as China’s economic and military rise reshapes the global order. This complex rivalry extends beyond economics, encompassing technological competition, with both countries vying for leadership in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G technology. Geopolitical tensions fueled by issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea further strain the relationship. The ongoing trade disputes and potential decoupling of economies could harm global growth and prosperity, increase the risk of military conflict, and fragment the global order. This paper analyzes the economic, technological, and geopolitical factors driving the US-China trade war, drawing on hegemonic stability and power transition theories, It critiques competing narratives surrounding the conflict and explores potential solutions for managing tensions. A central question is whether “rules of the road” can be established to govern economic and technological competition in a multipolar world, fostering stability and cooperation amidst rivalry.