Evaluating the outcomes of trade liberalization in Uzbekistan: impacts and paths forward

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates Uzbekistan’s trade liberalization and its implications for structural transformation and growth using a Partial Equilibrium (PE) model and a product-level Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis. The PE model quantifies aggregate effects of tariff cuts, finding small gains in household welfare but higher import dependence and meaningful fiscal revenue losses. The RCA results track normalized comparative advantage across key export products from 2019 to 2023, identifying product lines where competitiveness has strengthened or eroded. Taken together, the evidence suggests that tariff liberalization delivers modest welfare improvements while widening the trade deficit and reorienting Uzbekistan’s comparative-advantage profile at the product level. The findings underscore the value of time-bound transition support and targeted upgrading policies for industries whose core export products are losing comparative advantage.