Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?
Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?
P. Goodwin,Dilek Önkal-Atay,Mary E. Thomson
2010 · DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2009.12.020
European Journal of Operational Research · 49 Citations
TLDR
A simple heuristic is suggested to allow people to make more effective use of prediction intervals and it is found that applying this heuristic to 85% prediction intervals would lead to nearly optimal decisions.