Assessing environmental performance in early building design stage: An integrated parametric design and machine learning method

Abstract Decisions made at early design stage have major impacts on buildings’ life-cycle environmental performance. However, when only a few parameters are determined in early design stages, the detailed design decisions may still vary significantly. This may cause same early design to have quite different environmental impacts. Moreover, default settings for unknown detailed design parameters clearly cannot cover all possible variations in impact, and Monte Carlo analysis is sometimes not applicable as parameters’ probability distributions are usually unknown. Thus, uncertainties about detailed design make it difficult for existing environmental assessment methods to support early design decisions. Thus, this study developed a quantitative method using parametric design technology and machine learning algorithms for assessing buildings’ environmental performance in early decision stages, considering uncertainty associated with detailed design decisions. The parametric design technology creates design scenarios dataset, then associated environmental performances are assessed using environmental assessment databases and building performance simulations. Based on the generated samples, a machine learning algorithm integrating fuzzy C-means clustering and extreme learning machine extracts the case-specific knowledge regarding designed buildings’ early design associated with environmental uncertainty. Proposed method is an alternative but more generally applicable method to previous approaches to assess building's environmental uncertainty in early design stages.