An empirical analysis of the effect of commercial motorcycle restriction policy on public health and safety in Lagos State

The decision to enact laws which enforce the restriction of commercial motorcycle operation to the back streets of Lagos metropolis in 2012 has been greeted with mixed feeling. Motorcycle appearance within Nigeria's urban transport scene is fraught with many safety challenges which include use of drugs, over-speeding, overloading, non observance of traffic laws, non use of rear mirror and receiving calls while riding were identified as the major causes of accidents among operators. The costs associated with these accidents culminated in a wave of outright ban in several states in the country, however the Lagos State Government opted for restriction of their operations within the metropolis, the impact of the approach on security and safety has been hugely debated. This study made use of primary and secondary data in a survey of 120 commercial motorcyclists operating within Ikeja Local Government Area, the capital of Lagos State. Primary data was presented using descriptive method while the secondary data was analyzed using quadratic regression model from a scatter plot of 5 year monthly accident admission cases from a federal orthopedic hospital in Lagos. Results from the survey indicate a significant improvement in the security challenge posed by commercial motorcycle operations while the downward trend in the observed cases of motorcycle hospitalization from analysis is consistent with introduction of the law restricting their operations. Forecast using trend-cycle of the seasonal decomposed series indicates motorcycle accident admission cases will end within first 5 months of 2015. The study concludes enforcement of the law has made a huge positive impact and therefore should be sustained.