A Fuzzy MCDM Approach for the Evaluation of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Alternatives Under Uncertainty

The increasing carbon footprint of civil aviation has made the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) a strategic necessity in line with the sector’s sustainability goals. This study evaluates the existing SAF types based on environmental, economic, technical and social criteria, determines the criteria weights with Fuzzy-Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (F-SWARA) and selects the most suitable alternative through Spherical Fuzzy-Multi Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis plus full MULTIplicative form (SF-MULTIMOORA) method. The alternative evaluation process was carried out on a Python-based online platform and sensitivity analysis was performed on five different scenarios. According to the findings, the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK) alternative stands out as the most suitable option in all scenarios, followed by the Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK) alternative. In contrast, Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ-SPK) and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) options seem to be more variable and less stable. The study provides methodological contributions for the evaluation of SAF alternatives with fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods and provides strategic implications for manufacturers and airlines in achieving the low-carbon targets of the aviation sector.