A Dynamic Default Prediction Framework for Networked-guarantee Loans

Commercial banks normally require Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to provide their warranties when applying for a loan. If the borrower defaults, the guarantor is obligated to repay its loan. Such a guarantee system is designed to reduce delinquent risks, but may introduce a new dimension risk if more and more SMEs involve and subsequently form complex temporal networks. Monitoring the financial status of SMEs in these networks, and preventing or reducing systematic loan risk, is an area of great concern for both the regulatory commission and the banks. To allow possible actions to be taken in advance, this paper studies the problem of predicting repayment delinquency in the networked-guarantee loans. We propose a dynamic default prediction framework (DDPF), which preserves temporal network structures and loan behavior sequences in an end-to-end model. In particular, we design a gated recursive and attention mechanism to integrate both the loan behavior and network information. Then, we uncover risky warrant patterns by the learned weights, which effectively accelerate risk evaluation process. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments in a real-world loan risk control system to evaluate its performance, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach compared with state-of-the-art baselines.