A Bayesian Spatial Survival Model for Analyzing Breast Cancer Survival in Lagos State, Nigeria

A Bayesian spatial survival model was employed to assess geographical disparities and influential risk factors using retrospective data from oncology centers between 2019 and 2025. Central Local Government Areas (LGAs) such as Ikeja, Surulere, Oshodi-Isolo, and Mushin showed positive spatial effects, indicating that survival was higher than expected after adjusting for individual risk factors. The variation of surrounding regions in the Local Government Areas including Ibeju-Lekki, Epe, and parts of Eti-Osa recorded strongly negative spatial effects, suggesting substantially poorer survival not explained by observed covariates.