When a system breaks: queueing theory model of intensive care bed needs during the COVID‐19 pandemic
When a system breaks: queueing theory model of intensive care bed needs during the COVID‐19 pandemic
Hamish Dd Meares,Michael P. Jones
TLDR
A simple model of an uninterrupted pandemic process based on the local situation in late March 2020 is proposed, and this model is compared with recent data from the Lombardy region to determine how many ICU beds will be required in Australia.
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) pandemic is pushing health systems to, and possibly beyond, their limits.1 In Italy, the exponential rise in case numbers has caused a corresponding rise in demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds.2 To determine how many ICU beds will be required in Australia, we propose a simple model of an uninterrupted pandemic process based on the local situation in late March 2020, and compare this model with recent data from the Lombardy.3