Water quality–fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem–based management

Significance Our study showcases an approach to assess nutrient management decision-making in aquatic ecosystems. By combining fisheries data with reconstructed nutrient loads and hypoxic extent during the past century, we demonstrate why nutrient abatement plans designed to curtail Lake Erie hypoxia appear too restrictive in today’s climate yet may be insufficient in the future. Beyond illustrating how nutrient management can cause water quality–fisheries tradeoffs that can vary with climate change, we offer a rare example of nutrient-driven hypoxia shaping long-term fisheries harvest dynamics in a large ecosystem. Ultimately, our study highlights why adaptive ecosystem–based management that uses simple predictive models to assess tradeoffs between management priorities over long timescales can help sustain valued services in ecosystems experiencing change.