THE CONTINUITY OF POWER IN THE SOCIALIST FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA BY US EXPERTS’ ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS, JANUARY 1969 – JANUARY 1981

The article analyzes the American-Yugoslav relations in 1969–1980. The research focuses on Washington’s perception of the personal and political qualities of Josip Broz Tito, who left a deep mark in the history of Yugoslavia and international relations. It is shown that the political choices of this politician, including his decision to distance from the USSR and the Warsaw Pact countries, as well as his independent non-aligned strategy and special role in creating and developing the Non-Aligned Movement, were taken into account in the decisions of the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter to move closer to the SFRY. The development of US-Yugoslav relations was an important element in the US strategy. It is noted that the US government and the expert community highly appreciated Tito's achievements in governing the country. Throughout the decade, Washington paid significant attention to the problem of continuity of power, since the prospects for preserving the territorial integrity and state sovereignty of Yugoslavia depended on that. The article is based on a wide range of Russian and American documents and the achievements of modern historiography. The empirical material is revealed by methods of historical and dynamic analysis. The author pays attention to the estimates by American analytical services (the State Department, the NSC, and the CIA) of the prospects for preserving Tito's legacy after his death, and the impact of these estimates on formulating Washington's strategic objectives in relation to this country in 1969–1981. The conclusions are substantiated that the United States was aware of the real state of affairs in Yugoslavia, and monitored the development of political processes in the country. The experts realized the lack of an adequate mechanism for the continuity of power and the consequences resulting from this circumstance in the form of the federation destruction and even a possible civil war. They developed their regional and global policies taking into account these circumstances.