Research on the coupling coordination of high-quality development and carbon emission in China’s construction industry

Accelerating the coordinated development of the high-quality development and carbon emission (HQD-CE) system in China’s construction industry is of great significance in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) was constructed, and spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and dynamic evolution laws of the coupled and coordinated development of HQD-CE of the construction industry in 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021 were explored by using spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov chain. Results show the following: (1) The CCD showed an increasing trend, and the spatial pattern was higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. (2) The spatial autocorrelation of CCD was significant, and the club effect was obvious, which made it difficult to realize the hierarchical leap in a short period. (3) The spatial spillover effect of CCD was significant, provinces with basic coupling dissonance faced the risk of horizontal solidification, and there were too few provinces with high-quality coupling coordination to drive the others, which could result in provinces with basic coupling coordination being influenced by provinces with basic coupling dissonance and falling back in development. The conclusions of this study can provide a reference basis for the policy formulation of low-carbon development in the construction industry.