Global, regional, and national trends and machine-learning projections of caries in permanent teeth: synthesizing findings and issues in the global burden of disease, 1990-2021

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study provides an annually updated resource to study disease-related morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) worldwide. METHODS: Data on the burden of permanent dental caries were obtained from the GBD Study. Trend analysis was performed, and 6 time-series machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the global ASIR, ASPR, and YLDs. FINDINGS: In 2021, there will be 1,527.61 million new cases of permanent dental caries in the global population of all ages, The largest increases in age-standardized adult caries prevalence between 1990 and 2021 were seen in East Asia. The lowest age-standardized incidence of adult caries in 2021 was found in East Asia. Between 1990 and 2021, age-standardized adult caries incidence rates decreased most in high-income Asia-Pacific. Globally, the PROPHET WITH XGBOOST model is optimal for ASIR forecasts and the ARIMA model is optimal for ASPR and YLD forecasts. The projections show that ASPR and YLD decline slightly but begin to rise by 2024, while ASIR continues to rise. CONCLUSION: Although the prevalence of permanent dental caries and DALYs rates declined or remained stable from 1990 to 2021, there are regional and demographic differences, with prevalence and incidence rates still increasing in East Asia and Central Latin America. Health care providers should be aware of the impact of dietary structure and hygiene practices in contemporary societies on the prevalence of permanent dental caries in susceptible populations, and develop appropriate strategies to improve the situation and increase educational efforts to prevent permanent dental caries by providing feedback to hospitals. In 2020-2030, global caries in permanent teeth is likely to rise in ASIR, ASPR and YLD.