Evaluation of Contributory Influence of Selected Variables on Risk Index using Distribution Lag Model over a Twenty-Six (1991-2016) Years Secondary Data obtained from a Petroleum Oil Cooperation in Nigeria.

Regulatory agencies, industry stakeholders, and communities are increasingly demanding greater transparency and accountability in managing the risks associated with oil and gas industries to ensure safe and sustainable practices in order to avoid accident. This is because accidents such as pipeline ruptures, equipment failures, and spills can result in catastrophes such as environmental contamination, loss of facilities and human lives. The aim of this paper was therefore to evaluate the contributory influence of selected variables on risk index factors risk index. Distribution lag model over a Twenty-six (1991-2016) years secondary data was obtained the Nigerian National Petroleum Cooperation (NNPC). Data obtained revealed the occurrence of pipeline vandalism, rupture and spill. The calculated p-value of 0.000 based on the reliability test shows that the data was reliable and adequate. The fluctuating nature of the data around the residual mass-curve revealed that the data are from the same population distribution. The outcome of the DLM model revealed the overriding effect of pipeline vandalism, rupture and number of spills on the overall risk index.