Analysis of Failure Data of a 24-Teeth Spur Gear Using a Linear Regression Model

A gear is a toothed wheel that transmits torque and motion when meshed with another gear of a similar configuration. There are different types of gears; however, this article focuses on the critical role of spur gears in mechanical power transmission systems. Spur gear application has, however, been stunted for various reasons: material degradation, improper design, and thermal stress. This article analyses the failure trends of a 24-tooth spur gear used in a bottling machine. A linear regression model will locate maintenance time-to-repair (MTTR) patterns over 10 years from 2013 to 2022. The results indicated a fluctuation of MTTR trends across the different years, which is implied to be due to material wear, operational changes, and workforce efficiency. These results helped detail the relevance of predictive maintenance and emphasize the potential of machine learning methods in gear reliability. This study proposes using advanced analytical techniques such as Polynomial regression and SARIMAX Models for improved and proactive failure prediction.